Policy analysts are amazed by Modi-Trump personal chemistry

WASHINGTON, D.C. — South Asia analysts and policy wonks agree that at no time in history has the personal chemistry between an Indian and American leader been this so visibly manifest, but in interviews with India Abroad in the wake of the ‘Howdy, Modi!,’ extravaganza in Houston on Sept. 22, argued that now what matters are the tangibles between India and the U.S., particularly between a calculating Narendra Modi and a transactional Donald Trump, who views everything as a negotiation albeit basking in personal flattery.

"This is I would say one of the rare - and possibly - only time that an American president has attended the diaspora rally of a foreign leader in the U.S.” said Aparna Pande, the Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute — a Washington, D.C. think tank.

She said, “For India, the symbolism of an American president walking hand in hand with an Indian Prime Minister at the end of a rally is a victory for Prime Minister Modi and his administration. For President Trump, who loves rallies, the appeal of addressing a gathering of 50,000 Indian Americans - and possibly appealing to the larger four million strong community - is an opportunity he may not have wanted to miss, just one year before his re-election campaign."

Pande said there was no denying, "The strong personal chemistry between the two leaders that was evident in the smiles, hugs as well as the fact that Mr. Trump waited patiently during Mr. Modi's long introduction as well and sat through the long speech of the Indian Prime Minister.”

"Further, contrary to other times, Mr. Trump chose not to refer to India's tariffs, and other issues that have created friction between the two countries."

Pande said, "Mr. Modi too continued to refer to President Trump throughout his speech and praised him before the large audience, including joking about how Mr. Trump referred to him as a tough negotiator while Mr. Modi believed Mr Trump was one as well."

But she noted, "There was, however, no announcement of any mini trade deal, or any large defense purchases though there was announcement and reference to the recently concluded energy deal.”

She acknowledged, “It is possible that other deals may be announced during the bilateral meetings next week but we will need to wait for that."

Michael Kugelman, Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said, “From the perspective of U.S.-India relations, and that of Modi and Trump themselves, the event exceeded all expectations.”

He observed, “There's something very significant about the leaders of the U.S. and India sharing a stage together, singing each other's praises, and marching together-hand in hand-around a roaring arena. The optics don't get better than that, and especially for a U.S.-India relationship that has sputtered thanks to serious commercial tensions and faced new questions amid an upsurge in U.S.-Pakistan cooperation.”

Kugelman acknowledged, “Both Modi and Trump got what they want. Modi was able to solidify his already-formidable support from a large and growing Indian-American community. And, Trump was able to make a pitch to a key voting demographic-by hitting all the right notes-as an increasingly politically vulnerable Trump prepares for a brutal 2020 presidential election.”

But he argued, “There were certainly some awkward and painfully ironic dimensions to this event. Above all, you had Trump, one of the most anti-immigration presidents in years, pouring on the charm with one of the biggest immigrant communities in the U.S. And, you had Modi highlighting all of India's diversity and insisting that all is well, even though there are serious communal tensions and a major crisis in Kashmir.”

Richard Fontaine, president and CEO of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), said, “Other than the Pope, it's hard to think of a foreign leader who could fill an NFL (National Football League) stadium in the United States.”

“The event points out the growing influence of the Indian-American community - both to Indian leaders and to U.S. politicians seeking their support,” he said.

Fontaine added, “It shows Modi's calculation that a strong dose of personal flattery will smooth things with Washington, possibly including trade relations.”

“It also demonstrates the President's love of a huge rally - and hopefully, his support of a strong relationship with India,” he said.

Milan Vaishnav, Senior Fellow and Director, South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, echoing similar sentiments, said, “There is one path to Trump's heart and that is through flattery. Modi has clearly imbibed this lesson because he laid it on thick in his introduction. From invoking Trump's book ‘Art of the Deal’ to his "Ab kibaar, Trump Sarkar’ quip, Modi did the needful when it came to winning Trump over.”

“While Modi's comments can come across as pandering, like it or not this has also become a central element of foreign diplomacy in the Trump era,” he said.

But Vaishnav agreed, “The rally was a win-win for the two leaders. For Modi, he burnished his credentials as an international statesman and as a leader who is uniquely suited to tap into the power of the diaspora. For Trump, he had the chance to win over some votes in what is looking more like a battleground state in 2020.”

“And, let's face it, Trump has never met a massive crowd he did not like,” he added.

Rick Rossow, Senior Adviser and Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at

Center for Strategic & International Studies(CSIS), said, “The event in Houston certainly seems to have been a success for both leaders — President Trump was able to engage the Indian-American community in a tremendously positive light, while Prime Minister Modi showed once more a special ability to rally the diaspora in faraway lands.”

He said Modi “also touted his own record in hitting development targets, combatting security threats, and the decision to revoke Kashmir’s special status.” 

But Rossow argued, “We still have serious trade issues to overcome, and rumors of a ‘deal’ to resolve some of these issues is swirling,” he said, and noted, “With the recent significant corporate tax cut, Mr. Modi has a bit stronger story to try to sell potential investors as the U.S.-China trade war drags on.”

Rossow added, “And, the ministerial-level Quadrilateral Dialogue between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia could revive a key initiative in our security partnership.”

Sadanand Dhume, Resident Fellow on South Asia at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute, said that Modi who “just addressed his fourth rally in America in five years,” however still doesn’t seem “to grasp how economic freedom feeds prosperity.”

He argued that “if the government keeps trying to solve complex policy issues with silver bullet solutions, eventually, India will suffer the consequences.” 


Dhume, in an article in the Wall Street Journal, he wrote, “The prime minister wears his admiration for Indian-Americans on his sleeve. In New York, Mr. Modi praised the community for raising India’s standing in the world. In San Jose, Calif., he hailed it as a ‘brain deposit’ rather than a ‘brain drain’ from India. In Washington, he talked about Indian immigrants having ‘helped the USA to become more prosperous.’”



But Dhume argued that “at the heart of these spectacles lies a paradox. If Mr. Modi’s domestic policies are any indication, he appears not truly to grasp the basis of Indian-Americans’ success. They have thrived because America is built on principles that encourage it: a belief in free enterprise, an embrace of diversity and a meritocratic culture. On Mr. Modi’s watch, India has regressed on all three fronts.”



“Nevertheless, these jamborees enhance India’s diplomatic clout. Mr. Trump’s presence signals Washington’s support for New Delhi, much appreciated amid a spate of bad press over last month’s heavy-handed abrogation of autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed Himalayan territory claimed by both India and Pakistan,” and he acknowledged that the “presence of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, along with both Republican and Democratic members of Congress, gives that support bipartisan sheen.”